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CONTACT: William R. Taylor, M.D.
US phone #: area code 860 236 3709
EMAIL: williamtaylor@neca.com
RELEASE Psychiatrist Analyzes US/NATO Balkan Confusion
William Taylor, a Hartford, Connecticut psychiatrist, wants to make you an Уexpert in confusion.Ф In his new book, American Confusion from Vietnam to Kosovo, he maps the universal experience of confusion and bad decision making Ц serious errors in the thinking of officials and ordinary citizens as well. He has developed a computer model of Уconfusion dynamicsФ that enabled him to forecast events in the 1999 US/NATO air war against Serbia and its aftermath. Taylor published those forecasts on a web site as the events unfolded; readers of American Confusion can now decide for themselves whether he hit the mark or not.
Forecasting Future US, Middle East Confusion
His next projects involve forecasting likely scenarios in such areas as the inconsistent US policy toward China, and Vice President CheneyТs challenge in coordinating a tangle of federal and state responses to terrorist attacks.
Taylor finds still another domain for confusion analysis in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A major element in that struggle arises from one of the most tragic coping tactics used in disputes over ambiguous rights: Уfind an enemy and lose your confusion.Ф The lethal results of this coping tactic appear in headlines every day.
How will his new forecasts turn out? УStudies show that expert predictions often err,Ф Taylor comments. УMy model at least permits anyone with a personal computer to follow the steps I use, or to develop their own models, applying them to personal or organizational decisions.Ф
The psychiatrist adds, УIn these days of confusion in experts, we all need to become experts in confusion. My book can teach you how.Ф
Book preview: http://geocities.com/americanconfusion/index.htm
END OF RELEASE
SAMPLE QUESTIONS AND BRIEF BIO FOLLOW
SAMPLE QUESTIONS (Phone or email for answers.)
1. What led you to write a book on confusion? (See also Bio)
2. How do other psychiatrists view confusion?
3. What coping tactics do you discuss in the book?
4. Your book concentrates on politics and war? How can people use it
in their own lives?
5. YouТve said: УIn these days of confusion in experts, we all need
to become experts in confusion.Ф Are you saying that we canСt trust
our leaders?
6. Exactly how do you make your forecasts of political and military
events?
7. WhatТs your overall success rate for predictions?
8. YouТre a psychiatrist; how about diagnosing the Bush administration?
9. Where can people get a copy of American Confusion from Vietnam to
Kosovo?
Answer: Through my web site: http://geocities.com/americanconfusion/index.htm
or their local bookstore, via Books in Print.
END OF SAMPLE QUESTIONS
BRIEF BIO
Taylor graduated from Worcester Polytechnic Institute (Massachusetts, USA) and the College of Physicians and Surgeons, Columbia University (New York City.) He became fascinated as a psychiatrist in the 1960s with the ways in which he and other experts caused confusion in their patients by using psychiatric jargon. He decided that he and his colleagues must be using confusing words to hide their ignorance of the healing process.
УFrom these examples in my own field, I could see that confusion plays a much bigger role than we like to admit in the lives of officials and various professionals. From there I went on and made a study of many examples of the causes and the coping methods people use in government, industry, and ordinary life. The idea of a feedback loop where coping makes sources worse -- that concept came naturally from my physics background.Ф
Asked whether he ever intended to become an expert in confusion, Taylor
laughs. УNo. But you have to admit I had few competitors
when I started. I aim to change that, of course, by creating a generation
of experts.Ф
Creating experts in confusion?
Not exactly the career goal we would have expected from a psychiatrist.
УBut you play with the cards youТre dealt,Ф Taylor concludes. УMy deck happened to have a joker in it: a rather high tolerance for ambiguity.Ф
УAnd confusion?Ф the reporter asks.
УAnd confusion,Ф the psychiatrist agrees. УWe all have to learn to live with that.Ф
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