CHUBAIS WANTS TO BE PRESIDENT

Author: Pyotr Pryanishnikov

[from WPS Monitoring Agency]

ALTHOUGH ANATOLY CHUBAIS DOESN'T SEEM TO BE VERY POPULAR WITH THE PUBLIC, HE STANDS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF WINNING THE PRESIDENCY IN 2004. HE HAS GAINED INFLUENCE AT VARIOUS LEVELS IN ALL THE KEY AREAS: FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, THE REGIONS, THE MEDIA, AND HIS OWN BASE IN RUSSIA'S ELECTRICITY MONOPOLY.
 

Although over two years remain before the next presidential election, the race has already begun. It has begun without scandals or slogans, leaflets or election promises. The race has started quietly, and the favorite is Anatoly Chubais.

Election campaigns in Russia are aimed at gaining influence over tycoons, regional leaders, state resources, and the media.

While the current president is flying in military planes, sailing in submarines, and skiing down the slopes, Chubais is gaining control of all four of these levers of power.

In fact, Chubais gained influence over the media long ago, and this influence has never been interrupted. As for the financial resources of Russian Joint Energy Systems (RJES), the largest electricity company in the world, they are very great - and immune from outside scrutiny.

Not long ago, Chubais started taking over television. First he bought the Ren-TV channel. Then Alfred Koch, Chubais' old buddy and current CEO of Gazprom-Media, gained control of NTV. The TV-6 network is now headed by Yevgeny Kiselev, who doesn't hide his predilection for Chubais. Liberal politicians from Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces (URF) have supported Kiselev in his resistance to the president's imaginary attack on former NTV owner Vladimir Gusinsky. Everything looked honest and noble, and yet another pail of garbage was poured over Putin under the pretext of defending freedom of speech. As for ORT, everything is all right at that network too. Although its owner Boris Berezovsky is not a friend of Chubais, he will not be Chubais' rival in the presidential campaign, for an entirely understandable reason (because Berezovsky is Jewish - translator's note). Both of them are eager to oust Putin, and this goal could draw them closer to each other than Romeo and Juliet.

The theory for subduing tycoons and regional leaders was developed by Chubais long ago. Now it's time to put it into practice. At first the essence of the theory was that it is necessary to bring the finances of Russia's electricity sector into order. Consumers who owed money to RJES were cut off. This measure did work. After that, RJES executives started work on a radical restructuring plan for the electricity sector. This concept included privatizing electricity distribution grids and local utilities, shedding the unprofitable power generation sector, and thus gaining a weapon against other tycoons and regional leaders. The main argument in favor of this plan was the energy crisis in Primorye (the Maritime territory): Chubais made it clear to all regional leaders that if their electricity systems are not restructured, the same kind of crisis awaits them.

Only three regions protested against this reform plan: Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, and the Irkutsk region. These regions have their own electricity resources. However, they will have no chance when all main distribution grids are owned by RJES, which will happen within six months. Regions will have to pay whatever RJES asks for deliveries of electricity, if they don't want their economies paralyzed.

Tycoons are being pressured by rising tariffs. In 2002-03, electricity tariffs will doublt or triple - and export industries will be forced to their knees. The Federal Energy Commission had prevented indiscriminate tariff increases, until recently. However, according to the fuel and energy sector restructuring plan adopted by the Cabinet, this commission is to be replaced by a tariff agency directly subordinated to Economic Development Minister Herman Gref, who is said to agree with Chubais on many issues.

As for state resources, Chubais has his proteges in all branches of government. In the Duma he is supported by the URF and Yabloko. His proteges in the Cabinet are Herman Gref and Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Khristenko. They are actively implementing Chubais' ideas. Prime Minister Mikhail Kaisianov is a kind of shield against Chubais' plans. He delays the president's recommendations, or carries them out according to his own interpretation.

Chubais' protege Sergei Kirienko is the presidential envoy for the Trans-Volga federal district. He may have been appointed to this position to fight the current leaders of Bashkortostan and Tatarstan. In fact, Chubais' proteges have never left the Cabinet. They were only hiding out in the trenches for some time, preparing to launch another attack on the Kremlin. This time they are likely to conquer the Kremlin for a long time.

The skilled team of RJES executives should also be viewed as part of state resources. Chubais has created all of them, so to speak. These people made their careers on the voucher privatization scheme and auctions of state property. They are prepared to sacrifice anything for the sake of their chief. Along with their work in RJES, they also hold shares in various investment companies and funds. Although Russia's electricity output is gradually dwindling, the financial successes of RJES are rapidly growing. Regional and local subsidiaries of RJES are also headed by Chubais' proteges.

Chubais has adopted a Corporate Code for RJES. This code was tested in the course of consolidating all the right-wing liberal forces. It is fair to say that from now on the right has been consolidated by means of this code.

It is also worthwhile noting that Chubais associates with the IMF, the Paris Club, the World Bank, the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, etc. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin associates with Kim Jong Ill, Saddam Hussein, Jiang Zemin, Iranian authorities, etc. Do you see the difference? This means that the West may support Chubais' initiatives.

How can the president resist this pressure?

Putin has not created his own team so far. Moreover, it may be too late to create one. The special services are an unreliable and amorphous resource. Besides, the special services are fighting for their own survival, and therefore they are seeking a strong and generous protector. Unity lags behind the URF because of the directness and agility of the latter. In fact, Unity is just an assembly of bureaucrats who are not ready to take responsibility.

Putin will not be able to gain support in the regions. The institution of presidential envoys is helpless in the face of the RJES electricity cut-off switch. Regions will follow the directions of whoever has a finger on that switch. Presidential envoys cannot influence the regions as far as their electricity situation is concerned. Thus, the state is helpless before Chubais.

The tycoons realize this too. They see that the electricity monopoly is much stronger than the present government. Thus, the president cannot rely on the tycoons either.

As for natural monopolies, on September 2 they will be subdued by the formation of a Common Tariff Agency headed by Herman Gref.

In this situation, the state-controlled media will not be able to save the president even if he brings in the best PR consultants in the world.

So the election campaign has started already. The current layout of forces is apparently not in favor of Vladimir Putin. Meanwhile, the situation is developing according to Chubais' plans. This is only to be expected, since Chubais is a veteran of the Russian political arena. He is an adherent of economic and political traditions of the past decade. The liberal-democratic values of contemporary Russia are reflected in Chubais. If he becomes president, the line of succession in the government will not be changed in the public mind. So a new slogan is relevant now: "Chubais is our president!"

(Translated by Kirill Frolov)

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